Worldwide pay-TV revenues will reach USD 173bn in 2016, up from USD 124bn in 2006 and USD 155bn in 2010, according to a new report from Digital TV Research.
On-demand revenues are expected to increase much faster than subscription revenues, although on-demand is only expected to account for USD 5.7bn (or 3.3%) of the 2016 total.
“Subscription revenues will stutter as more homes convert to bundles, thus reducing TV-related income,” said Simon Murray, author of the report. “DTH [DBS] revenues will overtake cable TV revenues in 2011. DTH revenues will reach USD 86bn in 2016, up from USD 71bn in 2010. DTH will command nearly half the total revenues by 2016, up from 43% in 2006.”
The US is predicted to remain the largest market for DTH services, although its share of the global total will fall from 54% in 2006 to 41% in 2016, according to the report. Brazil is forecast to add the most DTH revenues (USD 3.1bn) between 2010 and 2016 – more than doubling its total in the process.
Cable TV revenues are expected to start sliding this year, with revenues falling by USD 7bn between 2010 and 2016 to reach USD 69bn, although cable operators are predicted to gain extra revenues by converting subscribers to bundles.
Digital cable TV revenues are forecast to climb from USD 43bn in 2010 to USD 62bn in 2016, with China predicted to add USD 4.3bn in digital cable TV revenues over the period, followed by Japan with an extra USD 2.6bn.
IPTV revenues are anticipated to rise from less than USD 1bn in 2006 and USD 6bn in 2010 to USD 17bn in 2016, with the US to remain the largest IPTV revenue earner, taking a quarter of the 2016 total (down from one third in 2010).
Pay DTT revenues are estimated to have reached USD 1.572bn in 2010, and are expected to slowly grow to USD 2.3bn in 2016, with Italy to generate almost half of the 2016 total.
“The US will remain the world’s largest pay TV revenue earner by some distance,” added Mr Murray. “However, its revenues will fall by nearly USD 3bn between 2010 and 2016 as homes convert to bundles and as competition increases. On the other hand, Brazil’s revenues will more than double over the same period, with India also enjoying impressive growth.”